Midterm Predictions
For: my friend, Mike.
I just want to go on dated record and give my predictions for what will be the most important midterm elections since 1952. Any of you history buffs will note the similarities of now and 1952.
First, we were fighting another war, one on the Korean Peninsula. This war was fought as part of the containment policy towards communism. As I have said before, terrorism is the new communism, and we are currently at war in Iraq to bring down terrorism (but as we all know it was because Saddam wanted to take Iraqi oil off of the dollar standard).
Furthermore, as a question to my colleague, is Bush, or Cheney for that matter, or even Rumsfeld, the new McCarthy? I mean, Joe screamed commie and everyone shunned, when one of these three aforementioned cats screams terrorism, the nation lifts its head.
Next, the Truman Doctrine was in full effect (as was the Marshall Plan but that is besides the point). The Truman Doctrine basically laid out our foreign policy and shaped the first and most threatening years of the Cold War. If you know about the Project for a New American Century (PNAC), created by neo-cons William Kristol and Robert Kagan, then you can see the similarities in their effects on foreign policy. Other members include Rumsfeld, Cheney, Jeb Bush, Steve Forbes, Paul Wolfowitz (President, World Bank), and John Bolton (US Ambassador to the UN).
Finally, recall in 1952 the Republicans lost control of the House and did not gain it back until 1994 when Newt Gingrich organized the party with his “Contract with America,” and became the Speaker of the House. Think back to the Fair Deal and the legislation that was going through at the time. Eisenhower allowed it to stay on the table as long as Democrats did not talk about civil rights and stayed tough on communism. I digress. My point was this is the year for another Democratic takeover in the house.
My picks:
The Dems will not only pick up the 15 seats they need to regain majority control over the House, they will pick up about double that. In places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New York, and Florida, Liberal sentiments are taking place due to the recent scandals in the House, ineffective leadership (to be very vague) and Iraq. These five states will yield the 15 seats alone. Throw in maybe half of the remaining states flipping one Republican out for a Democrat and presto, the Left has a majority of 11-18 in the House when the waves retract.
The Senate, which was never even on the table in summer, is now the focus of both National Committees. There are 33 Senate races this year but only nine of them are even worth menitoning.
New Jersey:
Democrat Menendez will hold his seat by maybe five points. Race really got close for a while.
Rhode Island:
Republican Chaffee will lose to Whitehouse when the undecideds come out for the challenger.
Missouri:
McCaskill will take the seat from Republican Talent by a very narrow margin, not even two points.
Pennsylvania:
Republican Santorum gets blown out by Casey.
Ohio:
Dewine, a once secure Republican, gets booted in favor of Brown. Not a good choice for Ohio.
Montana:
Tester takes out Burns by maybe three or four points.
Virginia:
Once a Presidential favorite for 2008, Republican Allen will lose to Webb. No less than three points.
Maryland:
An open seat, typically Democratic, will be held by Cardin but closely contested by Steele.
Tennessee:
Another open seat due to Senate Leader Frist stepping down to make a bid at the White House in 08 will be held by the current party. Republican Corker was in a close battle with Ford, Jr. (who was trying to become only the fourth black senator in US history) but will likely win by eight to ten points.
As a result, Democrats will pick up the six needed seats in the Senate and take control, assuming Lieberman remains loyal. Joe was shunned by his own party but ran as an Independednt and will win by double digits over Lamont, who beat him in the Democratic Primary in September. But if the Dems only win five seats, Lieberman joins Jeffords as the two Independents, and both of them caucus with the Democrats, then the Senate will be 50-50 with Cheney being the tiebreaker. Lieberman could gain an enormous amount of power from losing the primary two months ago.
Something tells me that the Democrats will take both Houses of Congress and even though the pundits all have the House of Reps being the sure thing, I think it is the Senate. I do not have any reasons why; just a gut instinct that is screaming to me through a haze of Bush bashing and sweeping Liberal ideology.
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